Major changes always come with a shock

Major changes in an economy or in the progress of a war never happen gradually, but always come with a shock.

Let's first take a look at the American economy.

That American economy is not in good shape.

In fact, it still looks reasonably good solely due to the enormous investments by the major AI companies. If you remove those investments, the US would already have entered a recession. Not yet, but those investments are essentially costs, not profits. If those investments do not yield the intended profits, it will cause a huge shock.

The fact that Trump is starting wars everywhere that cost enormous amounts of money does not help.

Meanwhile, the FED should lower interest rates to help Trump, but that is not the FED's job. The FED must do everything possible, independent of the government, to ensure stability. Lowering interest rates would effectively reward Trump's poor policies and make the shock that comes later even greater. But because interest rates aren't going down NOW, they will be in trouble in the US very soon. Suddenly, it will become clear that the emperor there is naked. That the US lacks the economic strength for current budgets. A difficult moment, now that you have just fired a substantial amount of ammunition in fairly senseless wars. Where will the money come from to order new ammunition?

That comes from fabricated money, not from economic strength.

Good for gold, not good for the dollar and the economy.

Suddenly, people will wake up to this, and overnight there will be panic.

The same applies to war. Suddenly, there is the realization that the war is, in fact, lost. We all know the outcome of the Second World War. The outcome of that war was a major exception in Europe. That war was fought to the last man in Germany. That was an exception. The outcome of the war in Afghanistan was much more ‘normal’ for the Americans and Russians. It resembled the outcome of the war in Vietnam and the outcome of the First World War. That is, namely, that one party suddenly gives up. The realization has dawned that it is no longer worth the effort. Yesterday it was, but today it isn't.

That applies now to the war in Ukraine, as well as the current Iran war.

What does Russia still want to gain in Ukraine? Today, they are still thinking in Russia about the total occupation of Ukraine, but there will come a day when they realize that all the effort is no longer worth the potential gain. The US is going to give up the war with Iran as well. The only question is whether that will happen in the coming days, or whether they will turn it into a conflict that lasts for years, entirely unnecessarily.

China is laughing its head off. Both competitors on the world stage are now engaged in their wars of attrition, while China is merely profiting.

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