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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1058

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 1 08:40:38 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 010840
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 010839=20
    OKZ000-011045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1058
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0339 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

    Areas affected...Western and Central Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351...

    Valid 010839Z - 011045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to increase over parts of
    western and central Oklahoma over the next few hours. Damaging wind
    gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threats.

    DISCUSSION...The latest RAP continues to show a pocket of moderate
    instability over western Oklahoma, where MUCAPE is estimated in the
    1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Over the last couple of hours, storms have
    developed along the eastern edge of this pocket of instability, then intensified and moved southeastward into less unstable air. This
    trend is expected to continue, with additional severe storms most
    likely to develop in northwestern and west-central Oklahoma over the
    next 2 to 3 hours. A more persistent line or cluster of organized
    storms is expected to form, moving south-southeastward along or near
    the I-35 corridor. Forecast soundings suggest that effective shear
    has increased over the last couple of hours, as a mid-level jet has
    moved southeastward into Oklahoma. This, combined with 700-500 mb
    lapse rates near 7 C/km, should be favorable for isolated large
    hail. The potential for damaging wind gusts may increase, especially
    if an organized cluster or line segment can develop.

    ..Broyles/Bunting.. 06/01/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4UbKdYim0qL97KArEgUfTAQOnJg7Cq5n4K-4tyZzZrMMl71OUNZnsNswEzj1eB7KH0fM6Es4f= TdAFg2UX0EBaThXQT8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34049644 34049740 34219837 34399920 34909954 35949954
    36369892 36369733 36009601 34529594 34049644=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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