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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1060

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 1 12:06:08 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 011206
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011205=20
    FLZ000-011400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1060
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0705 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

    Areas affected...South-central Florida Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 011205Z - 011400Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat may continue for the next two
    to three hours across south-central Florida. The threat is expected
    to remain localized, and weather watch issuance appears unlikely,
    although trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...An east-to-west band of strong thunderstorms is ongoing
    across south-central Florida, along a zone of somewhat focused
    low-level convergence. The storms are being supported by a shortwave
    trough that is moving through the eastern Gulf. A mid-level jet
    streak is analyzed by the RAP from the eastern Gulf extending
    eastward across the Florida Peninsula. This jet has strengthened
    deep-layer shear over south-central Florida into the 40 to 50 knot
    range, according to the RAP. This will support isolated supercell
    development this morning. Although RAP forecast soundings across
    south-central Florida suggest that low-level shear is not
    particularly strong, storm-relative helicity could be locally higher
    near the zone of low-level convergence. As a result, transient
    supercells could be capable of producing low to mid-level rotation,
    with a brief tornado possible. Marginally severe wind gusts could
    also occur. The threat should remain localized, and watch issuance
    is currently not expected.

    ..Broyles/Bunting.. 06/01/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5jpXECg6mDcPq470UZYSPs4obtxAZTh5zIiWuce-CyCmdHcduG17dUJrQ-0CE1IQZFeDfI-Sv= LZ7qukWRPGJAeTMskg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

    LAT...LON 26778042 26618143 26708180 26928189 27158176 27248149
    27408071 27388023 27148010 26918011 26778042=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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