ACUS11 KWNS 010539
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010538=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-010815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1057
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Areas affected...Western and Central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 010538Z - 010815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue through the
early morning hours, and an increase in the threat is possible. If
storms continue to intensify, then a severe weather watch may be
needed.

DISCUSSION...An east-to-west band of strong thunderstorms,
associated with isolated severe, is ongoing across northern
Oklahoma. The storms are located near a front, and are being
supported by large-scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough moving
southward through Kansas, evident on water vapor imagery. An axis of
low-level moisture is located from northwest Texas into western
Oklahoma, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F.
This is contributing to MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range across
much of western Oklahoma. RAP forecast soundings near the
instability max have effective shear near 40 knots, with 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 7 C/km. This should support a threat for isolated
large hail within the stronger cores. A capping inversion is
present, which will keep the storms elevated. However, an isolated
severe gust will be possible with the strongest of cells.

..Broyles/Bunting.. 06/01/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4sJbEdtm6aTwCzOFG6PAYSbWBwbbDoN_5WLmr5sulaV0uVp-L7UMgJOgvfIoZv4WXNYJQ4UjM= oBGezl8k_DtTSXK7rs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON 36349981 36809917 36859821 36669720 36069657 35239660
34639689 34319758 34409908 34839980 35490001 36349981=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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