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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1077

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 2 20:47:53 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 022047
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022047=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-022245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1077
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0347 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

    Areas affected...Northeastern Colorado northeastward through
    southwestern MN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 022047Z - 022245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon and
    evening along a cold front across much of central Nebraska and
    adjacent areas. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be the main
    threats.

    DISCUSSION...A Cu field is developing this afternoon across central
    Nebraska to the south of a slowly sagging cold front. Very large
    instability is present with temperatures rising into the upper 80s
    and low 90s F across the region. Continued boundary-layer mixing
    should erode any remaining inhibition, supporting convection
    initiating in the next couple of hours. A number of factors should
    contribute to quickly amalgamating storms, including widespread
    initiation, largely line-parallel (and relatively modest) bulk shear
    vectors, and ML LCLs between 1500-2000 m AGL. Large hail will be
    possible with the strongest cores, particularly early in individual
    storms' lifecycles, with a transition to a more widespread wind
    threat likely during the evening. A tornado or two cannot be ruled
    out amidst possibly complex storm interactions and/or stronger
    updrafts interacting with locally enhanced surface vertical
    vorticity near the front. A watch is possible this afternoon to
    address these threats.

    ..Flournoy/Smith.. 06/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4cp_itdERxjo5cK5F_dRBTKmfL4fL41XzZx4N23QFVtLB08sb3s4gaXOxz-TclTW_UKIKEyfG= pkX8Qq1my_1Hp-6cYw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

    LAT...LON 39960136 40280200 40940209 41290191 41440155 41779997
    42379869 43129755 44109656 44689621 44809557 44439505
    43579497 42869528 41449637 40529804 39979977 39960136=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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