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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1086

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 3 03:39:49 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 030338
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030337=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-030530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1086
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1037 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

    Areas affected...North-central/northeast OK into
    south-central/southeast KS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358...

    Valid 030337Z - 030530Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind and isolated hail may spread
    east overnight.

    DISCUSSION...While some weakening has been noted within parts of an
    extensive outflow-driven QLCS, a smaller eastward-moving cluster has
    evolved across north-central OK into south-central KS. While CINH
    will generally increase with time, the eastward-surging outflow
    moving through a strongly unstable environment may continue to
    produce occasional stronger updrafts, potentially aided to some
    extent by a rather substantial low-level jet. Increasing low-level
    flow/shear may allow for localized severe/damaging gusts along the
    gust front, though rather weak deep-layer shear may continue to
    limit the overall organization of the larger cluster.=20

    With time, some potential for sporadic severe/damaging gusts may
    spread into northeast OK and southeast KS. Isolated hail will also
    be possible. The need for downstream watch issuance is uncertain,
    given the current expectation that the severe threat will remain
    rather isolated, but observational trends will continue to be
    monitored for any increase in storm intensity and organization.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/03/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8KUzjWWjbQny6z1QBFPPtGhA0h776K3YUbSBteJUMLYwQetqtvDdQ9Tmv94kOOZU-JnNoiRRr= xvewf_0DB9V9c80uvI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35899845 37269781 38759765 38799665 38719599 37789568
    37249584 36509619 36109649 35899688 35849737 35769832
    35899845=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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