ACUS11 KWNS 031759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031759=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-032000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1090
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas northeastward into southeastern Iowa
and west-central Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 031759Z - 032000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon from
eastern Kansas northeastward into southeastern Iowa and west-central
Illinois. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be the primary
threats, but a tornado or two is possible particularly across
west-central Missouri and points northeastward.

DISCUSSION...A strong-to-severe thunderstorm complex is intensifying
in southeastern Kansas ahead of a cold front draped southwestward
across the region. The leading edge of the system is more
cold-pool-driven, and additional semi-discrete development has
occurred to the southwest. Up to 1" hail has been reported recently
with these more discrete updrafts. A continued threat for large hail
and severe wind gusts is anticipated as this activity continues to
develop and mature as it progresses northeastward throughout the
afternoon.

On the broader scale, this convection is located downstream of a
mid-level shortwave trough sliding east-northeastward through the
region. Ample boundary-layer moisture is present that -- combined
with temperatures breaching 80 F amidst some low-level cloud cover
-- is contributing to moderate instability. This will contribute to
continued convective maturation this afternoon as bulk shear around
40-50 kts persists ahead of the shortwave trough. Short-term CAM
guidance depicts a gradual uptick in system intensity with a mix of
QLCS and semi-discrete structures. The primary threats will be
severe winds and large hail with the strongest supercellular storms,
as well as a slightly broader wind threat if convection along the
leading cold pool edge re-intensifies. A tornado or two is possible
later this afternoon in northern Missouri where any supercellular
structures might be present amidst slightly greater low-level shear
during peak heating. Watch issuance is likely this afternoon to
address these threats.

..Flournoy/Smith.. 06/03/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4PI_ml5UXTvy_sXUW1-W8o6xttTEndqBA-AWFDOadXqUBMXbXg3K9mqaWkUI00m4rEe5WJa05= s4IS6_UcW4KpTkGOzY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37749732 38669618 39299507 40119409 40499329 40539230
40319167 39649140 38999144 38239265 37549440 37089574
37129707 37749732=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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