ACUS11 KWNS 032101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032101=20
TXZ000-032300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1095
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...northern to central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 032101Z - 032300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage through
the late afternoon and evening hours across northern Texas with a
more isolated severe threat with southward extent. Watch issuance is
possible in the coming hours to address these concerns.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and lightning data show deepening
cumulus with a few lightning flashes developing along a dryline from
northwest TX southward towards the I-10 corridor. Across northwest
to northern TX, thunderstorm coverage should gradually increase as
an approaching cold front begins to impinge on the dryline/warm
sector. Moderate buoyancy across the warm sector coupled with 35-45
knots of deep-layer wind shear will promote initially discrete cells
with a large hail/sporadic severe wind risk. With time, discrete
cells should merge within the approaching line and favor an
increasing severe wind risk across northern TX this evening.=20

Further south, weaker forcing for ascent should favor more isolated
convection, and recent CAM guidance continues to show uncertainty
regarding storm coverage. Nonetheless, the convective environment
will favor robust thunderstorms with an attendant hail/wind risk,
and building cumulus along the dryline hints that initiation remains
possible. Convective trends will continue to be monitored and watch
issuance may be needed for parts of the region (though watch
issuance is more probable for portions of northwest/northern TX).

..Moore/Hart.. 06/03/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7cwbxPIk3IHfgiDgJWEVmcxDGU3NBr1zPBNFIn-Uq9DJXlxYAJioLppIE9rLzwBLyNxGmFOT5= 7O2uSoYzZ3c76vEm7U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 30340059 30270104 30250149 30270169 30380187 30600190
30840177 31050150 32940008 33529954 33629916 33599785
33499731 33269707 32719710 32259730 31899774 31449835
30989911 30579987 30340059=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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