ACUS11 KWNS 040445
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040445=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-040615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1107
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...Parts of central/northeast TX into southeast OK and
southwest AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364...

Valid 040445Z - 040615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for strong to severe storms will continue into
the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...Strong to potentially severe storms are ongoing late
tonight from southeast OK into parts of central/north TX. Across
southeast OK, a north-south oriented bowing segment could approach
far southwest AR after Midnight, though some eventual weakening is
expected as convection moves into a less unstable environment. A
localized threat for damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado
could accompany these storms before they weaken.=20

To the southwest, a line of strong storms with occasional embedded
supercell structures is ongoing from near/east of the Metroplex into
northern parts of the TX Big Country, with more discrete cells
farther south. Midlevel lapse rates are weak, but rich low-level
moisture continues to support MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Wind
profiles will generally remain favorable for organized convection
overnight. Favorable low-level shear/SRH on regional VWPs will
support localized tornado potential with embedded supercells within
the line, and also potentially with the leading discrete cells if
they can persist within the weak lapse rate environment. Otherwise,
localized severe/damaging gusts will be possible, along with some
hail.=20

With time, there is some potential for ongoing storms to spread
south of WW 364, and also backbuild to the west. Observational
trends will continue to be monitored regarding the need for local
watch expansions and/or additional watch issuance.

..Dean/Hart.. 06/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6PreuJkG8wikGbXHKllhZd4_V9FaGBTkBC4bT2eLnDDfwHiW07dBjDI1FN5ZpPFutyh3T0nXl= enyalliS1yw69M2STQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 31650107 31790107 31939914 32499704 34029563 34689527
34799444 34489391 33989409 32999486 31859592 30319757
30209823 30099896 30120027 30090075 31650107=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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