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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1108

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 4 06:35:03 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 040634
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040634=20
    TXZ000-040830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1108
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0134 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

    Areas affected...Central and Northeast Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364...

    Valid 040634Z - 040830Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail and wind damage may
    continue over the next few hours across central and northeast Texas.
    The severe threat is expected to be too isolated for weather watch
    issuance.

    DISCUSSION...A line of strong to severe storms is currently ongoing
    from the northern Texas Hill Country northeastward to southeast of
    the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. The southwestern part of the line
    is near a cold front, with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F. The
    very moist airmass is contributing to moderate instability, with a
    narrow axis of instability axis located just ahead of the front.
    Near the instability axis, the KGRK WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 Km shear in
    the 30 to 35 knot range, with winds veering from south to west from
    the surface to 2 km above ground level. This should continue to
    support an isolated severe threat over the next few hours, as the
    line move southward across the Texas Hill Country. The primary mode
    is expected to be linear, which will be favor isolated damaging wind
    gusts along short bowing segments. Hail will also be possible with
    the more intense cores embedded in the line.

    ..Broyles.. 06/04/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!95_9R-xbfnomPivHi34KR3Evb8_ixhv7OPiOzVuxuTtRjGCT5Ccqs_3PKJbUYVR7TQl4RSlpj= FAjakNi7EE0KH4Inz0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 31719820 31379935 31219968 30929992 30679993 30429983
    30089945 30099876 30389776 31219617 31909526 32499484
    32939477 33349498 33469525 33399552 33159581 32489644
    31949753 31719820=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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