ACUS11 KWNS 041844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041843=20
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-042115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1112
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southeast Missouri into southern/central
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 041843Z - 042115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible through the
afternoon. The primary concern is locally damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving
northeastward across southeastern MO -- within a zone of
differential heating along/ahead of the cold front. Despite poor
midlevel lapse rates, heating within cloud breaks amid upper
60s/lower 70s dewpoints is yielding sufficient (albeit weak)
surface-based instability. While deep-layer shear is modest across
the region (20-30 kt of effective shear), small, clockwise-curved
hodographs could still support localized convective organization
into clusters and transient supercell structures. The primary
concern is locally damaging wind gusts, especially with any
localized clustering, though a brief/weak tornado cannot be entirely
ruled out with any mini supercells that can evolve. Given the
expected localized nature of the severe threat, a watch is not
expected.

..Weinman/Smith.. 06/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-fNGCkdxCHI3bLYCGY2H13sCNGIeIaP9VLX4R5c5mChMDlhOitSIxfGVFHOEA9XN6Bvgh1a96= C7Wr6ZQYf1griU2c0c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 37299284 38859072 40068867 40088795 39708759 39148763
38398812 36978992 36439132 36369211 36569275 36899296
37299284=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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