ACUS11 KWNS 051742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051742=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-051915-
Mesoscale Discussion 1119
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025
Areas affected...Parts of western Oklahoma...the eastern Texas
Panhandle...and northwest Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20
Valid 051742Z - 051915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...The risk of large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a
tornado or two will increase through the afternoon. A watch is being
issued for parts of the area.
DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms are evolving over the eastern
TX Panhandle along an antecedent outflow boundary -- where
lower/middle 60s dewpoints are in place. Through the afternoon, this
activity will continue spreading/developing eastward into western
OK, where clearing clouds are supporting diurnal heating and related
increasing surface-based instability. A long/generally straight
hodograph (40-50 kt of effective shear) will favor a mix of
organized clusters and supercell structures -- capable of producing
large hail and severe gusts, though a tornado or two cannot be
entirely ruled out with supercells. A watch is being issued for
parts of the area.
..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/05/2025
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_VS5wpwkV44sujVlLTj8PwIJmF2XACA888hUyI3ltPWqOO0PoN26QYIbfYhUVzdKmRSsfEVZH= cLQfJh63GdL4CmPKXo$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...
LAT...LON 33729986 34829998 35660023 36290010 36459948 36449881
36299829 35579813 34099810 33669842 33549903 33729986=20
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
=3D =3D =3D
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