1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1126

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 5 20:07:17 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 052007
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052006=20
    OKZ000-052200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1126
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0306 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of central Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 052006Z - 052200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts and large hail could
    continue spreading eastward across central Oklahoma this afternoon.
    Trends are being monitored for a possible downstream watch.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has become increasingly organized
    as it tracks eastward along a boundary across west-central OK, as it
    interacts with a warm/moist air mass amid 40 kt of effective shear.
    While an earlier ACARS sounding from OKC and mesoanalysis suggest
    lingering inhibition ahead of the ongoing cluster of storms,
    continued diurnal heating amid upper 60s dewpoints and modestly
    steep lapse rates could support the maintenance of these storms with
    eastward extent across central OK through the afternoon. If this
    were to occur, the 40 kt of effective shear would continue to
    promote an organized cluster (and possibly embedded supercell
    structure) -- capable of severe winds gusts and large hail.
    Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch
    downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366.

    ..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/05/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!66Bec5Ldb-ciRvoLzJtXUZ0C208_Or3JtI1VyOVo88wfVrfhVZdoNK1XCkXN37uclc0mt9NTQ= prPeYsxh5-fAU-3rbg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34849851 35209885 35649887 36069841 35969668 35769597
    35149583 34619620 34559673 34849851=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)