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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1145

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 6 16:01:48 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 061601
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061601=20
    MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-061800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1145
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

    Areas affected...Southern New England

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 061601Z - 061800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail will be
    possible with multicell storms after 18-19z (2-3p EDT) this
    afternoon. The need for a watch is uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating is ongoing across southern New
    England along and south of a diffuse baroclinic/differential heating
    zone. As surface temperatures warm through the mid-upper 80s with
    mid-upper 60s dewpoints, MLCAPE will increase to near 2000 J/kg with
    minimal convective inhibition. By early-mid afternoon, widely
    scattered thunderstorm development will become probable along the
    diffuse baroclinic zone/buoyancy gradient. Steep low-level lapse
    rates, DCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg and precipitation loading could favor
    isolated wind damage with downbursts, while the moderately large
    buoyancy will be sufficient for marginally severe hail. Vertical
    shear will remain relatively weak and the storms are currently
    expected to remain only loosely organized, so the need for a watch
    this afternoon is uncertain.

    ..Thompson/Smith.. 06/06/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6wYnzdjsxQmuDk0cZLsG36RAV2dtlFm5hdbGakrUf5gB_kPeEeI3Fxkp-PDb8kAlDI56frbOt= MlQQYU5FN7_-rAI_3Y$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

    LAT...LON 42277141 41837132 41607160 41487249 41347332 41777359
    42277352 42497313 42697244 42647166 42277141=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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