• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1154

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 6 21:21:43 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 062120
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062119=20
    MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-062315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1154
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0419 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

    Areas affected...portions of southeast New York to northern Connecticut...central Massachusetts...and southern New Hampshire

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 062119Z - 062315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong storms should continue into early evening, with
    damaging gusts and large hail the main threats.

    DISCUSSION...Strong storms are underway across portions of New
    England, where strong wind gusts and large hail have been reported
    over the past several hours. Though deep-layer shear is relatively
    weak across New England, ample buoyancy resides ahead of ongoing
    storms, where low 80s F surface temperatures are contributing to
    1500 J/kg MLCAPE. As such, strong wind gusts and hail may continue
    with both pulse cellular and multicellular storms, though the severe
    threat should remain isolated given weak shear.

    ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/06/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_8cZZnxcblTLVsHtYUcEA9SN3QY7FarMhWFgDt9qtr_adc1SEK55S2XE5uNW8r_0I-FINlgYa= jz3p4jy4jzaWzyER_o$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

    LAT...LON 41457429 42877280 43517205 43567133 43257079 42827093
    42287160 41877239 41497317 41357381 41457429=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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