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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1164

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 7 01:58:04 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 070157
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070157=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-070330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1164
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0857 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

    Areas affected...portions of western Texas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 379...

    Valid 070157Z - 070330Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues.

    SUMMARY...Very large hail and significant severe gusts remain likely
    with the stronger storms, and a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled
    out. A downstream WW issuance may be needed if it becomes evident
    that severe storms should persist for several more hours.

    DISCUSSION...Several supercells continue to track east ahead of a
    dryline, atop an unstable warm sector. Some of these supercells have
    a history of producing large hail over 3 inches in diameter, along
    with 80+ mph wind gusts. Given up to 4000 J/kg MLCAPE preceding the
    storms, it is not out of the question for these storms to persist
    with significant severe wind/hail and sparse tornado potential for
    at least a couple more hours. 00Z RAP forecast soundings show
    convective inhibition setting in ahead of the ongoing storms, given
    15C 700 mb temperatures overspreading a nocturnally cooling boundary
    layer. As such, long-term severe potential remains unclear.
    Nonetheless, if storms show signs of persisting into west-central
    TX, a downstream WW issuance may be needed.

    ..Squitieri.. 06/07/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6emBvVgye0f2SxdXvnYQrh0-z-7nzZIlERawAXx45-U4tpH-5ZBJX8Q-X33ZF7ZVTeS281t3C= qXEYwV7a8Qp8ua62pI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32150368 33680253 34160169 34100049 33969943 33869892
    33489890 32839915 32409954 32070027 31860091 31820175
    31830306 32150368=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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