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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1167

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 7 04:42:24 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 070442
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070441=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-070615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1167
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1141 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

    Areas affected...OK/TX Panhandles into western/central OK

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 381...

    Valid 070441Z - 070615Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 381 continues.

    SUMMARY...Supercells with a hail and tornado threat may continue
    into the overnight, with an increase in severe-wind potential
    possible with time.

    DISCUSSION...Intense supercells continue to move southeastward
    across the OK/TX Panhandles, with one long-lived cell currently
    moving into west-central OK. Other strong to locally severe storms
    are approaching central OK. Nocturnal cooling and increasingly
    prominent outflow are increasing MLCINH across the region, but
    favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will continue to support
    supercells with potential for tornadoes and large to very large hail
    into the early overnight hours.=20

    The influence of outflow moving northward across western/central OK
    remains somewhat uncertain overnight, but in general, a
    strengthening low-level jet may support some clustering and upscale
    growth of convection overnight, generally near/north of a surface
    boundary draped from the northern TX Panhandle into northern OK.
    Should this occur, the severe-wind threat may increase with time,
    along with a continued threat of some hail and localized tornado
    potential with any persistent supercell structures.

    ..Dean.. 06/07/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5vg9dCtDSCcsGfjLHZ0iydarD_keAH7MFqMrNluXFKNFpfdzdmWJBSciDZN15AaaEI87y29Op= fXer6kyljTfsjwPcwc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA...

    LAT...LON 36970091 36949943 36599724 35509647 34859669 34709804
    34739978 35280164 35570193 36000215 36520240 36830238
    36970091=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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