ACUS11 KWNS 071233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071233=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-071400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1174
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...northeast Arkansas...western Tennessee...and far
northern Mississippi.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 071233Z - 071400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A watch may eventually be needed across western Tennessee
and vicinity.

DISCUSSION...A well-developed squall line exists this morning from north-central Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma. Sporadic, mostly
sub-severe, wind gusts have been evident along this line this
morning. Ahead of this line, a cluster of storms has developed
within a warm-air advection regime across Arkansas. A few stronger
cells have developed within this cluster, but do not expect this
activity to produce a greater/widespread severe weather threat. The
greatest risk is associated with the squall line farther west, and
whether it maintains intensity as it moves east. At least some
heating appears likely this morning along the southern edge of the
upper-level cirrus shield. Therefore, a severe thunderstorm watch
may be needed at some point to address this threat, but a watch is
not anticipated for the preceding cells/cluster at this time.

..Bentley/Hart.. 06/07/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!410Nx_Z7PO7Ibbbph_3CWb0pEbUMSe5yiRtgQViwL0VECixqqC9-CoNuNvK2aAVDIhAwlNEoN= yIBBUa6ctmqH6mYz2w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON 36439119 36429008 36458889 35928805 35418782 35018786
34668809 34318899 34289013 34329064 34439115 36439119=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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