ACUS11 KWNS 071604
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071604=20
TNZ000-ALZ000-GAZ000-MSZ000-071830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1175
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Parts of Middle TN and northern/central AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 071604Z - 071830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts will spread/develop eastward into Middle TN and northern/central AL by
18-20Z. A watch is likely before 17Z for parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...As of 16Z, a gradually organizing MCS is tracking
eastward across the Mid-South -- ahead of a progressive midlevel
shortwave trough moving into the the Middle MS Valley. In tandem
with the midlevel shortwave trough, this activity will continue spreading/developing eastward into the afternoon, generally
approaching Middle TN and northern/central AL by 18-20Z. While less
certain, isolated thunderstorm development is also possible ahead of
the organizing MCS over parts of northwest AL -- where agitated
boundary-layer cumulus is evident within weakly confluent low-level
flow.=20

Continued diurnal heating/destabilization of a very moist
pre-convective air mass (lower/middle 70s dewpoints) will yield
strong surface-based instability (strongest over northern/central
AL) this afternoon. This unstable inflow, coupled with upwards of 40
kt of line-orthogonal deep-layer shear (strongest over Middle TN),
should support the maintenance and/or intensification of the
approaching MCS, along with any isolated warm-sector storms that may
evolve. Despite veered surface winds over the warm/moist sector,
steep pre-convective boundary-layer lapse rates and a
well-established cold pool will favor scattered damaging wind gusts
through the afternoon, with isolated severe hail also possible.
Embedded mesovortex structures may evolve along any
north/south-oriented portions of the line, posing a risk of locally
stronger gusts (up to 75 mph) and perhaps a brief tornado or two. A
watch will likely be issued for parts of the area before 17Z.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/07/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ZRjoC-b-UJcER4lhOiCjYs6UDGh_GbAoBcMWM5X7UiC924QAS3EGEueUoPvrNbXH7H9VNg5W= S1dlwLdwruCWMgUOI0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 33508829 34858809 35938795 36218765 36368717 36418667
36328606 36038572 35708557 34948559 33418565 33018587
32858646 32918766 33178812 33508829=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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