ACUS11 KWNS 042140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042139=20
DEZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-042315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2033
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Maryland...eastern
Virginia...and northern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 042139Z - 042315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms for
a few more hours, before storms weaken with the onset of nocturnal
cooling.

DISCUSSION...Multiple strong thunderstorms persist ahead of a
surface cold front over northern North Carolina into eastern
Virginia/Maryland. With diurnal heating continuing along the East
Coast, temperatures are in the 80s F, amid low to upper 60s F
dewpoints, yielding 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE despite poor mid-level
lapse rates (per 21Z mesoanalysis). The current thinking is that
these storms may persist for a few more hours, accompanied by strong
to occasionally damaging wind gusts, and an instance or two of hail
cannot be ruled out. With time, storms should begin to weaken as
nocturnal cooling increases convective inhibition and CAPE weakens.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 09/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5r1weEkPoye3tcIGFbwHfv8b-2Xh231ChAL5XTyPP_lbR2abBEfXB2j1iuMTqrm236cQCPCxy= Bj8OtMT4WOY73uLwfw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 38157599 36547748 35887854 35717910 35747958 35867976
36087968 37487846 39357715 39577683 39777612 39557577
38967570 38157599=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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