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OUTLOOK: Nws National Hur
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Mon Sep 8 08:01:32 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 081118
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Wed Sep 10 08:03:04 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 101132
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Blake
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Thu Sep 11 08:48:34 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 111131
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge offshore of west Africa by
Friday. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development of the system over the weekend into early next week as
the wave moves to the west or west-northwest at about 15 mph over
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Fri Sep 12 09:25:56 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 121133
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern
Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development of this system over the next several days. A
tropical depression could form by the middle part of next week while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Berg
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Sat Sep 13 09:39:03 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 131156
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
limited shower and thunderstorm activity over the far eastern
Atlantic. Dry and stable air will likely limit this system's
development over the next few days, but a tropical depression could
form by the middle to latter part of next week while moving
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Berg
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Sun Sep 14 10:12:10 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 141139
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although dry
and stable air is expected to limit development during the next
couple of days, gradual development is anticipated thereafter, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter
part of this week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Mon Sep 15 09:45:29 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 151128
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The
disturbance will begin to move into a more favorable environment for development in the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week as the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Tue Sep 16 10:04:01 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 161140
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area
located about midway between the Windward Islands and the coast of
west Africa have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next day
or two as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10
to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa is producing
an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible towards the mid to latter
part of this week as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, moving from
the eastern to central portion of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Wed Sep 17 08:51:24 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 171139
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Depression Seven, located in the central Tropical
Atlantic.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located just east and southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to
occur while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and
central portion of the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of
development, this system will likely bring areas of heavy rain
across the Cabo Verde Islands later today and Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Seven are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Seven are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.
$$
Forecaster Beven
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Thu Sep 18 08:26:53 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 181107
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, located in the central Tropical Atlantic.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
Friday morning. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the weekend through the middle of next week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Sun Sep 21 09:00:48 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 211147
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.
Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad tropical wave moving into the central tropical Atlantic
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorms well to
the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although environmental
conditions are not favorable for initial development of this system
over the next day or two, these conditions should gradually become
more favorable for development by the middle to latter part of this
week, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Mon Sep 22 09:18:51 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 221147
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic a few
hundred miles southeast of Bermuda.
Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde
Islands has increased since yesterday. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more favorable for development by tomorrow,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter
part of this week while while the system moves west-northwestward
to northwestward across the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
East of the Leeward Islands:
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Leeward Islands
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for slow
development over the next few days as the wave moves quickly
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. By the latter part
of this week, the system is expected to slow down and turn more
northwestward, and a tropical depression could form late this week
when the system is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the
Bahamas. Regardless of development, gusty winds and showers are
expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and
Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Tue Sep 23 08:43:57 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 231128
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.
Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located a little less than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be favorable for development over the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter half
of this week while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward into the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms, and gusty winds across much of the Windward and
Leeward Islands. This wave is expected to move west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday. The
system is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it
reaches the southwestern Atlantic near the Bahamas late this week,
and a tropical depression could form when the disturbance is in that
region. Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Wed Sep 24 08:55:26 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 241143
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.
Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be favorable for further development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form later today or Thursday
while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the
western tropical Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94):
A tropical wave over the northeastern Caribbean Sea is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to
move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall
and gusty winds into Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and
across the Dominican Republic beginning tonight. The system is then
expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the
southwestern Atlantic late this week. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be more conducive for development in a few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form when the disturbance is in the
vicinity of the Bahamas. Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to perform a system survey
this afternoon to gather data from the surrounding environment, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Kelly
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Thu Sep 25 08:21:52 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 251131
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic, and on
Tropical Storm Humberto, located several hundred miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
Central Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Atlantic (AL94):
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds across portions of the Dominican
Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. An area of low pressure
is expected to form along the wave tonight or early Friday when it
moves near the southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become
a tropical depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and
northwest Bahamas in a couple of days. Interests in the Dominican
Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system as heavy rains and gusty
winds are likely across that region regardless of development.
Interests along the coast of the southeastern United States should
also monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Humberto are issued under WMO header
WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Humberto are issued under WMO header
WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Sun Sep 28 08:46:51 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 281110
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Nine, centered just south of the central Bahamas, and on
Hurricane Humberto, located over the southwestern subtropical
Atlantic.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Fri Sep 26 09:51:12 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 261122
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, near the eastern Azores, and on
recently upgraded Hurricane Humberto, over the subtropical central
Atlantic.
Southwestern Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located near Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba. An area of low pressure
is expected to form along the wave by tonight when it moves near the
southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become a tropical
depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest
Bahamas over the weekend, and then track northwestward or northward
over the southwestern Atlantic.
Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are ongoing
in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and are likely to spread across the Bahamas and eastern Cuba during
the next day or two. Interests in all of these areas should monitor
the progress of the system. While there remains considerable
uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system,
there is a significant risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge
impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast early next week.
Interests in this area should also monitor the progress of the
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Sat Sep 27 08:23:19 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 271154
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located over the subtropical central Atlantic.
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Nine, located near eastern Cuba.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Tue Sep 30 09:49:56 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 301144
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Imelda, located several hundred miles west-southwest of
Bermuda, and on Hurricane Humberto, located a few hundred miles
west of Bermuda.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Bucci
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Wed Oct 1 09:24:32 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 011143
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Imelda, located several hundred miles west-southwest of Bermuda, and
on Hurricane Humberto, located a few hundred miles northwest of
Bermuda.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Thu Oct 2 09:43:46 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 021143
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Imelda, located east of Bermuda.
Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the
next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with
another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow
development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure may form along a remnant frontal boundary
near the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida over the next
couple of days. Any additional development is expected to be slow
to occur as the system moves northwestward across the Florida
Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Fri Oct 3 09:34:44 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 031133
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Southwestern Atlantic:
A weak area of low pressure has formed near the central Bahamas
along the remnants of a frontal boundary. This system is expected to
meander near Florida and the Bahamas for the next several days.
Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant
development of the low, however the combination of the disturbance
with the broader remnant boundary are still expected to produce
heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and the Bahamas through
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa today.
The wave is forecast to interact with another disturbance over the
eastern tropical Atlantic, and then move westward after that.
Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for some
slow development of the system in a few days, and a tropical
depression could form near or east of the Lesser Antilles by the end
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
= = = = = = =
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Sat Oct 4 08:36:16 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 041137
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Bahamas and Southern Florida:
A weak area of low pressure located near the northwestern Bahamas
continues to produce disorganized shower activity. This system is
expected to drift west-northwestward across the northwestern Bahamas
and toward southern Florida during the next day or two, however
development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds. Heavy
rainfall could lead to flash flooding across portions of the east
coast of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.
North-Central Gulf:
A weak area of low pressure has formed over the north-central Gulf
and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms off the
coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. This system is
expected to move slowly northwestward during the next day or two,
reaching the coast of Texas by Monday. Development of this system
is not expected due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.
Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave between the west coast of Africa and Cabo Verde
Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of the wave is possible over
the next few days, and it could become a tropical depression by the
middle to latter part of next week while moving across the
central tropical Atlantic and approaching portions of the Leeward
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Berg
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Sun Oct 5 08:09:42 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 051138
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form this week as the system moves quickly across the
central tropical Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward
Islands by the latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
North-Central Gulf:
A weak area of low pressure located over the north-central Gulf is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the coasts of
Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. This system is expected to
move slowly northwestward during the next day or two, reaching the
coast of Texas by Monday. Development of this system is not
expected due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Mon Oct 6 09:31:01 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 061117
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a low-latitude tropical
wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the tropical central Atlantic. Environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next few days while it moves quickly west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic, approaching the northern Leeward Islands
by the latter part of the week. Interests there should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Tue Oct 7 08:19:11 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 071127
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with an area of low pressure located a little more than
1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. If these trends continue,
advisories will likely be initiated on a tropical depression later
today. This system is expected to move quickly west-northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic, and then move near or north of
the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday. Interests
there should continue to monitor its progress. For more information
on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Southwestern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure located over the Yucatan Peninsula is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is expected to emerge over the Bay of Campeche later
today, and some slow development is possible before it moves inland
over southern Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Regardless
of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and southern
Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Wed Oct 8 08:04:17 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 080550
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located in the central tropical Atlantic.
Southwestern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible before it moves inland over
southern Mexico later today or early Thursday. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across
portions of southern Mexico during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Thu Oct 9 08:38:36 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 091137
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located few hundred miles east-southeast of the
northern Leeward Islands.
North Atlantic (AL96):
A gale-force non-tropical area of low pressure located several
hundred miles to the west-northwest of the Azores is producing
limited shower activity near its center. Some subtropical or
tropical development of this system is possible over the next day or
two before it moves over even cooler waters and into a stronger
shear environment. For more information on this system, including
gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service and Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http s://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-ItwktHE3WcuR139 fEhYVz_TYly5lL7Llr0kkyIYKqnbdcH9YAmWjqN5DPLSVyvU5fUu_VXi6AI_wiSuWOgXycy311c$
$$
Forecaster Kelly
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Fri Oct 10 09:08:24 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 101133
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located north of the northern Leeward Islands, and on
Subtropical Storm Karen, located over the north Atlantic.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Karen are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Karen are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Sat Oct 11 08:46:33 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 111146
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located over the southwestern Atlantic about midway
between the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda.
Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located well to the south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Berg
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Sun Oct 12 08:34:04 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 121139
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A tropical wave located well to the southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some development of this system during the next few days, and a
tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of
this week while it moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 15 to
20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Mon Oct 13 08:43:03 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 131125
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Lorenzo, located in the central Tropical Atlantic.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Lorenzo are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Lorenzo are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Thu Oct 16 08:31:58 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 161126
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Thu Oct 16 19:54:47 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 162357
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
East of the Windward Islands into the Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave currently located over the central tropical Atlantic
is associated with a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Some
gradual development of this system is possible over the next several
days as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible as the
system moves across the Windward Islands late this weekend and
enters the Caribbean Sea by the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
North Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently developing several
hundred miles to the south of of Nova Scotia, Canada. This system is
expected to drop southeastward and then turn northeastward by this
weekend, and some subtropical or tropical development could occur
while the system moves over the Gulf Stream to the northeast of
Bermuda. By early next week, the system will move further
northeastward into colder waters, ending its chances for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Fri Oct 17 07:34:35 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 171138
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic more than
1000 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large
area of showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this
system is possible over the next several days while it moves
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the
Windward Islands late this weekend and then move across the
Caribbean Sea much of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
North Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is located well off the coast of
the Northeast United States. There is a slight chance that the
system could develop some subtropical characteristics during the
weekend before it turns northeastward over cooler waters by early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Sun Oct 19 08:55:59 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 191144
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Near the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave currently located near the Windward Islands is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall
and gusty winds are expected today continuing through Monday morning
across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands as the system
moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph into the eastern Caribbean
Sea. Additional development is forecast to be limited over the next
day or two, due to the fast forward motion of the wave. The system
is then expected to slow down over the central Caribbean Sea during
the middle portion of the week, where environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development. A tropical depression could
from over the central Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portion
of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Mon Oct 20 08:39:35 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 201148
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms primarily east of
the wave axis. The system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph towards
the central Caribbean Sea and is expected to slowdown over the next
few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is
likely to form over the next few days. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are subsiding for the Windward and
Leeward Islands this morning, but could begin over portions of the
ABC Islands during the next couple of days. For more information on
this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Papin
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Tue Oct 21 09:38:17 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 211126
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Satellite, radar, and surface observations indicate that the area
of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea appears to be
developing a well-defined center, and is already producing winds up
to 45 mph. A tropical storm is expected to form later today while
it slows down over the central Caribbean Sea. Heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are possible over portions of the ABC Islands during the
next day or two. Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and
Cuba should monitor the progress of this system as there is a risk
of heavy rain and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this
week. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate
the system later today. For additional information on this system,
including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Sat Nov 1 09:07:19 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 011136
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Sun Nov 9 10:13:37 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 091119
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Sun Nov 16 09:06:07 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 161124
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to
All on Sun Nov 30 10:27:19 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 301126
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Fri May 15 09:24:43 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 151119
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Today, May 15, marks the first day of the routine issuance of the
Atlantic basin Tropical Weather Outlook in 2026. This product
describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their
potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next seven
days. The Tropical Weather Outlook is issued from May 15 through
November 30 each year. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM,
8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After the change to standard time in
November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.
A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Sun May 17 08:11:42 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 171112
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
= = = = = = =
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Sun May 31 08:48:12 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 311120
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Tue Jun 2 09:58:50 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 021131
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Wed Jun 3 09:04:22 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 031130
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Thu Jun 4 08:22:43 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 041146
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Adams
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Fri Jun 5 09:50:36 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 051105
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Sat Jun 6 10:03:30 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 061113
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Sun Jun 7 09:10:22 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 071113
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Mon Jun 8 09:58:55 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 081123
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Bucci
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Tue Jun 9 08:11:24 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 091114
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Wed Jun 10 07:51:26 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 101136
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Bay of Campeche:
A broad area of low pressure could form over the Bay of Campeche
late this week. Conditions are not expected to be favorable for
significant development, and the system should move inland over
eastern Mexico late this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
-
From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Thu Jun 11 08:14:10 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 111134
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Bay of Campeche:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the Bay of
Campeche on Friday from a westward-moving tropical wave currently
located over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for
development before the system moves inland over eastern Mexico late
Saturday or Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Berg
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Fri Jun 12 09:29:44 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 121148
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Western Gulf:
A broad area of low pressure has formed over the far southern Bay
of Campeche and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally
conducive for development before the system moves inland over
eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. The system could re-emerge
over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday while
interacting with a frontal boundary, but there too, conditions are
only expected to be marginally conducive for any development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Berg
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Fri Jun 12 13:09:02 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 121727
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Western Gulf:
Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity has increased a
little near a broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of
Campeche. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only
marginally conducive for development before the system moves inland
over eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. The system could
re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday while
interacting with a frontal boundary, but there too, conditions are
only expected to be marginally conducive for any development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Berg
&&
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Sat Jun 13 08:24:41 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 131143
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Southwestern Gulf:
A broad area of low pressure just offshore of eastern Mexico
continues to produce some shower and thunderstorm activity. While
this system has become better organized since yesterday, marginal
environmental conditions will probably prevent significant
development before the low moves inland over eastern Mexico by
Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on
Tuesday or Wednesday while interacting with a frontal boundary, but
conditions there are also expected to be only marginally conducive
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
= = = = = = =
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Sun Jun 14 08:16:43 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 141137
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over eastern Mexico is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development is not expected during the next day or so while the low
remains inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas during the
next day or so. The system could then re-emerge over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico around midweek while interacting with a
frontal boundary, but conditions there are expected to be only
marginally conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Adams/Blake
= = = = = = =
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Mon Jun 15 07:30:06 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 151151
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico continues
to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development is not expected during the next day or so while the
trough remains inland and drifts generally northward over
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. The system is then forecast
to move northeastward and could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico late Tuesday or Wednesday, where environmental conditions
may support some development around midweek.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall, flash
flooding and gusty winds are possible across portions of eastern and
southern Texas and Louisiana this week. Additional information on
this system can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
= = = = = = =
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Tue Jun 16 07:42:48 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 161142
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90):
A broad area of low pressure located inland over south Texas is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The system is forecast to move northeastward along the Texas coast
and could emerge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico later
today or tonight. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical
storm late today or on Wednesday, especially if the system moves far
enough offshore.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern
and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should
prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days
which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and
river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible
along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required later today. Additional
information on this system can be found in products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
= = = = = = =
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Thu Jun 18 07:39:13 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 181149
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Offshore East Coast of the United States (Remnants of Arthur):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
(the remnants of Arthur) are located over the southeastern United
States. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for
some subtropical or tropical development on Friday or Saturday,
as the system moves northeastward at around 15 mph, and emerges
offshore the east coast of the United States and into the Western
Atlantic Ocean.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with the potential for
widespread and life-threatening flash flooding is likely across
portions of the Southeast United States during the next day
or two. Additional information on the rainfall potential can be
found in rainfall forecasts and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks from
the Weather Prediction Center online at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.
More information on this system, including Gale Warnings, is
available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
= = = = = = =
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Fri Jun 19 07:57:25 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 191133
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Offshore the East Coast of the United States (Remnants of Arthur):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
(the remnants of Arthur) are located over the southeastern United
States. The system is expected to emerge offshore the east coast of
the United States later today. Environmental conditions appear to be
marginally conducive for some subtropical or tropical development
tonight or Saturday as the system moves northeastward at around 20
mph across the Western Atlantic Ocean.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with the potential for life-threatening flash flooding is likely across portions of the
Southeast United States through tonight. Additional information on
the rainfall potential can be found in rainfall forecasts and
Excessive Rainfall Outlooks from the Weather Prediction Center
online at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov . More information on this system, including Gale Warnings, is available in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
= = = = = = =
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Mon Jun 22 07:52:57 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 221133
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Blake
= = = = = = =
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Tue Jun 23 08:32:26 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 231137
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Blake
= = = = = = =
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Wed Jun 24 08:47:13 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 241134
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Beven
= = = = = = =
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Thu Jun 25 10:20:10 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 251136
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Beven
= = = = = = =
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
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From
Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to
All on Fri Jun 26 13:03:12 2026
ABNT20 KNHC 261716
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Blake
= = = = = = =
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