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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2062

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Sep 12 06:08:52 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 120608
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120608=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-120845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2062
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0108 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

    Areas affected...Northeastern North Dakota...Far Northwest Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 120608Z - 120845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Potential for large hail threat may continue for a couple
    more hours over northeastern North Dakota, but the threat should
    remain too isolated for weather watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...A subtle shortwave is evident on water vapor imagery
    over northeastern North Dakota, which is providing support for a
    small cluster of strong thunderstorms. These storms are located
    along the northeastern edge of a pocket of moderate instability,
    where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F, and MLCAPE is
    estimated by the RAP near 2000 J/kg range. In this area, forecast
    soundings from the RAP have 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km,
    with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range. This environment
    should support a potential for large hail with the strongest of
    cells within the ongoing cluster. This cluster is forecast to move
    eastward across the remainder of northeast North Dakota and into far
    northwest Minnesota over the next few hours. Any severe threat
    should be too isolated for weather watch issuance.

    ..Broyles/Bunting.. 09/12/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7r6K9dYRdJAHTzDFLFAAiz7O_BS3cYI0Q3OCc6x2VxjA088IbKjROjujrbS6IR1BnYuypZxFA= _aCs0dhHM5fgf7hpSE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

    LAT...LON 48999936 48990007 48830049 48500062 48180048 47949973
    47779747 47769663 47959627 48489602 48779610 48969650
    48989753 48999936=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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