ACUS11 KWNS 121516
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121516=20
COZ000-NMZ000-UTZ000-AZZ000-121745-

Mesoscale Discussion 2063
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Arizona...northwestern New Mexico...southeastern Utah...southwestern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 121516Z - 121745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal risk for strong to severe wind and hail will
continue through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Upper-level divergence from a broad trough and
advancing jet streak across the western US is bringing forcing for
ascent across a plume of modest mid-level moisture across across southern/central Arizona into western New Mexico, southern Utah, and
southern Colorado. This has led to widely scattered thunderstorm
development through the morning.=20

Temperatures are warming into the mid to upper 60s, with some breaks
in the cloud cover. This should allow for insolation and heating
with additional cooling aloft forecast with the trough. This should
yield around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by the afternoon. Steep lapse
rates and deep layer shear around 30-40 kts will support a few more
organized cells capable of strong to severe wind and marginally
severe hail. Coverage of a more organized severe threat remains low
confidence, and as such a watch is unlikely at this time.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/12/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_4nk988PWgydQ51Tg0DUYLQ39Y38_azRicH4Nqmh3eMOEgXx_m-K4Nn20IgGzf8OPWlCqQSga= KHxMd0qE5GGPY9Uaic$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...

LAT...LON 37791011 39120983 40090888 40130752 38620673 36860635
35140728 33040864 32560943 32551009 32811020 37791011=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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