ACUS11 KWNS 121618
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121617=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-121715-
Mesoscale Discussion 2064
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Areas affected...portions of far northeastern South Dakota and
central/northern Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 121617Z - 121715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Storms across central/northern Minnesota will pose a risk
for small to severe hail.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms ongoing across central Minnesota have
produced occasional reports of hail up to 1 inch. Though MLCAPE is
meager, NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest there is ample MUCAPE
aloft amid steep mid-level lapse rates and deep layer shear around
30-40 kts. This will continue to support a few instances of small to
severe hail. Given the uncertainty on the duration and spatial
coverage of this threat, a watch is unlikely.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/12/2025
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-KhTmtPeFWWv_WZEGsr8iaJxb3IF6Ik6aUDx8kDOG9QDi-lLLhJNq3o0SfhuxsMzrzamygdnA= lpjG11LUmdN1wDHUl4$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
LAT...LON 46259647 47889535 48249448 48279355 48219296 48019250
47179222 46309236 46039247 45069606 45039720 45499759
45849735 46259647=20
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
=3D =3D =3D
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