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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2067

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Sep 12 19:33:24 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 121933
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121932=20
    SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-122200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2067
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0232 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

    Areas affected...central Montana into northeastern Wyoming and far
    western South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 121932Z - 122200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected to continue across
    the high terrain and adjacent areas in central Montana, northeastern
    Wyoming, and far western South Dakota. An isolated wind and hail
    risk will be possible before more widespread severe storms develop
    this evening.

    DISCUSSION...A couple of areas of thunderstorm development are noted
    near the Big Horns in Wyoming, central Montana mountains, and near
    the Black Hills in South Dakota. The more prominent upper-level
    forcing for ascent remains across portions of AZ/CO, which will
    likely keep the risk somewhat initially isolated and tied to the
    terrain. Given the weakening MLCIN and heating/destabilization amid
    deep layer shear around 30-40 kts, these thunderstorms will be
    capable of a few instances of strong to severe wind and marginally
    severe hail.=20=20

    As the upper-level wave approaches this evening, further cooling
    aloft and forcing for ascent should promote more broader scale air
    mass destabilization, increasing shear, and increase in thunderstorm
    activity moving off the terrain posing an increased risk for large
    hail and damaging wind.

    ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/12/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Mi0g4dwuMhJzCx4jMP3jH_08s2_bqaRo8yZvlzh_mvxHpU_dQA6C7gmoE5rP2RQ26qB-rvGt= SNHmnCA7RSCnD_NrNc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 46121051 47181056 48970846 48870574 43810321 43050395
    43180562 46121051=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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