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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2069

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Sep 13 02:50:26 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 130250
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130249=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-130445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2069
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0949 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of western/central SD into southwest ND

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 130249Z - 130445Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and strong to locally severe
    gusts will continue into late tonight.

    DISCUSSION...Earlier slow-moving supercells have largely weakened
    across northwest SD/southwest ND, but recent vigorous development
    has been noted across southwest SD along a northeastward-moving
    outflow emanating out of the northern High Plains. Additional strong
    to potentially severe storms may develop along this outflow as it
    impinges upon a favorable thermodynamic environment (as observed in
    the 00Z BIS/ABR soundings). While ascent along the outflow may
    encourage some tendency toward development of clusters or small line
    segments, favorable deep-layer shear combined with weak low-level
    flow may continue to favor isolated or semi-discrete cells with a
    continued threat of large hail. While MLCINH will continue to
    increase with time, favorable lapse rates above the stabilizing
    near-surface layer will also support some potential for strong to
    locally severe gusts.=20

    The severe threat may continue to remain rather isolated, but watch
    issuance is possible if trends support maintenance of multiple
    sustained supercells or organized clusters/line segments into late
    tonight.

    ..Dean/Gleason.. 09/13/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_SUYFkOnf8B_H_2dAG4apWRZDRJaKtznOtyTMCjJdXtvbv42MaOFiZikcS11_K-3915i8tuPG= dG-ZzCE4Q3F7DEyI7o$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

    LAT...LON 43090282 45430394 46220400 46870179 46960058 45700028
    44990023 44380026 43670055 43250087 43090282=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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