ACUS11 KWNS 250817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250816=20
TXZ000-251015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2177
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631...

Valid 250816Z - 251015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and a brief/embedded tornado or two
remain possible in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631 -- especially in a
west-east corridor extending from parts of Harris County to
Jefferson County through around 11Z.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KHGX and especially TIAH
show several embedded/transient mesovortex structures within the
convective line moving across southeast TX. As the line continues
eastward, the combination of lower 70s dewpoints and enhanced
low-level hodograph curvature (around 200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH per VWP
data) will continue to support these transient/enhanced embedded
circulations -- posing a risk of damaging gusts and possibly a brief
tornado or two. The most favorable corridor appears to extend from
parts of Harris County eastward to Jefferson County through around
11Z.

..Weinman.. 10/25/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4GuGaG1ngCs3awyLSfwveZLG4uOczkuK7IUY8hJd3PDK-O-7DM5P1d__-pORguY6xWyLAP41J= 5kEOv-Cxyb2woi3D0k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON 29629427 29659553 29859576 30289566 30349526 30139408
29859398 29629427=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)