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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2178

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Oct 25 10:47:59 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 251047
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251047=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-251215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2178
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0547 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

    Areas affected...Far southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631...

    Valid 251047Z - 251215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An MCS will continue eastward across far southeast Texas
    into southwest Louisiana this morning, posing a risk of damaging
    winds in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631. A local extension of the
    watch (spatially and temporally) may be warranted.

    DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented MCS continues tracking eastward
    at around 35 kt across far southeast TX toward southwest LA this
    morning. Recent VWP data from KHGX sampled a 45-kt rear-inflow jet,
    and several severe-wind reports have been associated with the line.
    As this activity continues eastward into southwest LA, upper 60s to
    lower 70s dewpoints, modest low-level warm advection (evident in LCH
    VWP data), and around 40 kt of line-orthogonal deep-layer shear
    should support its maintenance. The primary concern continues to be
    damaging wind gusts, though a brief embedded/mesovortex tornado also
    remains possible -- given sufficient low-level shear and the rich boundary-layer moisture. As such, a local spatial and temporal
    extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631 may be warranted, to
    include Jefferson Davis, Acadia, and Vermilion Parishes until 13Z or
    14Z.

    ..Weinman/Smith.. 10/25/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4RWrkYaq7S4P6OZW2TFmiESyGs1lG4bGra4iyArt6NOtQHBGT0GDKm8tegh9-9W0JsMPhAjmu= wKCJShMF4H_Pn_8LKM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

    LAT...LON 29479219 29579428 29769436 30569418 30739393 30629324
    30159209 29829196 29479219=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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