ACUS11 KWNS 251954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251953=20
TXZ000-252130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2179
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Areas affected...portions of north-central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 251953Z - 252130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms may produce marginally severe hail
and gusty winds this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Isolated strong storms have developed this afternoon
near a cold front draped across central into north Texas. This
activity is developing beneath the colder core of the midlevel
trough and on the fringes of the stronger midlevel jet. MLCAPE
ranges from around 500-1500 J/kg where storms have developed, but
the downstream airmass remains capped. Weaker instability is also
downstream, where overnight/early morning convection resulted in
overturning. Airmass recovery has been slow, limited by early cloud
cover and veered low-level winds.=20

While this may limit overall severe potential, cool temperatures
aloft and greater than 40 kt effective shear magnitudes could
support transient strong updrafts with a potential for marginal hail
and gusty winds with the strongest cells this afternoon.

..Leitman/Gleason.. 10/25/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7b2HVqIYOHSpXwb1KRkeOtvr15MCaP_oXKWwuZbV_5EtH204WAl-TLduegoe0ZoS13nhVZ3dt= EJLi61-r9cN96zjDKo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 31119949 31519930 32269830 32439761 32569682 32569648
32429621 32029597 31369615 30879679 30669764 30589833
30779919 30899929 31119949=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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