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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2180

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Oct 25 20:47:04 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 252046
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252046=20
    IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-252215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2180
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0346 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

    Areas affected...portions of far northeast Oregon into far southeast
    Washington and western Idaho

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 252046Z - 252215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe gust or two may occur with one of the stronger
    storms that can develop over the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite, MRMS mosaic radar imagery, and NLDN
    lightning data all show the development and possible intensification
    of low-topped convection across portions of the Pacific Northwest
    into the northern Rockies. Here, modest diurnal heating beneath cold temperatures aloft is supporting scant buoyancy with boundary-layer destabilization. An 80+ kt 500 mb jet streak is beginning to pivot
    around the upper trough, and is poised to overspread the region in
    the next few hours (as shown by 20Z mesoanalysis). This will further
    increase vertical speed shear and provide a stronger wind field
    aloft for severe gusts, should effective downward momentum transport
    be realized. The current thinking is that the newly developed storms
    will oscillate in intensity. However, if a storm or two could
    sufficiently deepen, a couple of severe convective gusts are not out
    of the question over the next few hours.

    ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 10/25/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-cTy83V4lUYFy3A2Fc1i_V94H77u2Mn34H98x4wGwN2GAyPQqIFqeat7Ex3Trb0S8Px1W30dr= zPZenWqZHVhv0pL6M8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

    LAT...LON 45001894 46161910 46831880 47151825 47291740 47141682
    46801624 46251588 45581594 45131628 44851673 44661741
    44611824 45001894=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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