ACUS11 KWNS 270312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270311=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-270445-

Mesoscale Discussion 2186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...coastal AL and western FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 270311Z - 270445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado is possible with potential intensification
of a transient supercell tracking along a quasi-stationary front.
Limited spatial extent and marginal nature of the tornado threat
will preclude a watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Multiple transient circulations have occurred over the
past 2-3 hours with a slow-moving, but persistent updraft that has
evolved from near Dauphin Island across a part of Mobile Bay into
Baldwin County, AL. Each circulation attempt has eventually broadened/diminished amid weakness in the 1-3 km portion of the
hodograph, per the MOB VWP, and poor tropospheric lapse rates
sampled in available 00Z RAOBs. Nevertheless, this updraft may track
eastward along the quasi-stationary front that extends overland
across Pensacola to Santa Rosa Island. Potential for brief
tornadogenesis may persist through about 06Z along this corridor.

..Grams/Hart.. 10/27/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4FgToCCl7wEhYgS2lYxEjp-_gfeXcc_kwbdZoCoj4W6r4IDP95qLuHpKvUldFxfsGXShiYk-m= fX_2uT16UvZxdj5zxg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 30518774 30558731 30568708 30418634 30278620 30308645
30328695 30268768 30518774=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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