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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2188

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Oct 27 10:27:48 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 271027
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271027=20
    FLZ000-271200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2188
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0527 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

    Areas affected...Coastal portions of the central Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 271027Z - 271200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A localized risk of a tornado or two and waterspouts
    continues over coastal portions of the central Florida Panhandle.
    Given the localized nature of the risk, the need for a watch is
    uncertain, though trends are being monitored closely.

    DISCUSSION...After several storm mergers, a well-established
    supercell has evolved about 13 miles offshore of the Panama City
    coast area. Radar data over the last 30 minutes, coupled with
    forecaster experience, suggest high confidence that two waterspouts
    have occurred with this supercell. The storm is focused within a
    persistent north/south-oriented low-level confluence zone and is
    being aided by 150-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH (per EVX/TLH VWP data).
    While the severe risk associated with this activity may remain
    offshore where boundary-layer moisture/heat fluxes are aiding in its
    current intensity, lower 70s dewpoints along the immediate coastal
    areas of the central FL Panhandle do support some risk of inland
    progression. If this were to occur, a tornado or two could not be
    ruled out -- given the well-established low-level mesocylone. Given
    the spatially confined area and considerable uncertainty of a
    tornado risk developing onshore, the need for a watch is uncertain.

    ..Weinman/Smith.. 10/27/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4tVDYYTW3_NcZT3VUxcsk0Vb876PkaHDZuHD_JYFF2V3uh1YDEJhzKTYT438nSsmCzjr_BFbD= Sev91FYMkhT-l0bkJU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...

    LAT...LON 29578538 29988606 30208610 30368587 30428540 30208474
    29908449 29538477 29578538=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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