ACUS11 KWNS 110422
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110421=20
TXZ000-110545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Areas affected...northeast Texas/Southeast Oklahoma into central
Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 38...

Valid 110421Z - 110545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 38
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds
or localized hail remain possible within the watch area. A more
localized tornado risk also remains possible over far northeast
Texas and toward the Red River.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms extend from southeast OK into central
TX and toward Del Rio, with the most organized threat area over
northeast TX/southeast OK. Here, effective SRH ahead of the
prominent line of storms remains favorable for low-level rotation,
and instability is strongest. Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado remains possible. The SHV VWP shows a favorable hodograph
for rotating storms with 0-1 SRH over 250 m2/s2.

To the southeast, outflow has pushed south of the Metroplex with
weaker showers ongoing, however, another zone of strong storms is
pushing into central TX, and extends southwest toward Del Rio.

Deep-layer shear is oriented parallel to the central TX outflow, and
convective inhibition is increasing which limits eastward extent of
severe potential. However, persistent precipitation along the
boundary and deepening cold pools could allow strong storms with
hail or wind potential to extend a few more counties east of the
existing line.

..Jewell.. 03/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ArlxsBGoM36m3PWO1Ia6fNQIB5ipO_Lp8NfSqkRHPR8DD-GG1t6bUOyGoVtpJQ4Rxp2VGf-y= b1B0tt7WPaysnOLfwk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29280119 29640061 30819922 31569866 31909810 31989725
32569635 33239605 33829598 33869537 33319502 32689507
32099590 30879748 29519914 28910013 28570078 28560129
29280119=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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