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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0213

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Mar 11 14:10:51 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 111410
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111410=20
    PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-111615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0213
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0910 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

    Areas affected...Upper Ohio Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 111410Z - 111615Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...While surface-based instability may remain limited, strong
    low-level flow will promote damaging wind and tornado potential into
    the afternoon. A tornado watch is likely.

    DISCUSSION...A narrow band of convection continues to race eastward
    into western Ohio this morning. The KIND and KILN VWP showed around
    75 kts in the lowest 2 km. Despite limited buoyancy, convection
    should be deep enough to promote damaging wind potential based on
    the strength of the low-level flow alone. Furthermore, VWP data from
    regional 88D/TDWR also showed enlarged low-level hodographs. A few
    tornadoes will be possible within the line of convection as it
    continues into the afternoon. The main question going forward will
    be the degree of destabilization downstream of the current strongest
    activity. A broad area of precipitation precedes the narrow band and
    is moving from southern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. Buoyancy may
    continue to remain limited as a result. The low-level moisture
    content is sufficient enough that even weak surface heating would
    allow for stronger convection. There is also some potential for
    additional activity to form on the southern flank of the
    precipitation later this afternoon. Though these uncertainties
    exist, the environment will still support damaging wind and tornado
    potential. A tornado watch will likely be needed.

    ..Wendt/Gleason.. 03/11/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Nv9yIvnCiPQlFTxqF1S7R3bv-VagS5rZyd92ben8NXx7Z-woQvwhFUHvwA7NO28OG4FOwCNZ= TN8c3IJuSZQYlTTVe4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

    LAT...LON 40258245 40828330 41058362 41268353 41548243 41588146
    41578091 41338003 40737976 40177988 39327999 39318087
    39598150 40258245=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)