ACUS11 KWNS 111856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111856=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-112100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...southeast TX to the Lower MS Valley

Concerning...Tornado Watch 44...

Valid 111856Z - 112100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 44 continues.

SUMMARY...Primary corridor of severe potential into late afternoon
should be across a portion of southeast Texas to the
Louisiana/Mississippi border vicinity of the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Sporadic damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may yet
occur.

DISCUSSION...The forward speed of a QLCS across east TX has been
modest thus far, with a paucity of measured wind gusts approaching
severe magnitudes. The downstream boundary layer remains warm with
low to mid 80s surface temperatures common. But as observed by the
18Z LCH sounding, weak mid-level lapse rates have hampered updraft
intensity, as well as sustained discrete development ahead of the
large-scale outflow. The continued eastward progression of the
central TX shortwave trough should support intensification of the
QLCS into the late afternoon. Low-level shear will generally remain
strong just ahead of the QLCS, mainly across the coastal plain near
the Lower Sabine Valley, with weaker values farther inland and east
per VWP data/short-term forecast guidance. The compact nature of the
cold core near the trough may continue to hamper more robust storm
intensities, even with approach of peak boundary-layer
heating/depth.

..Grams/Gleason.. 03/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!98WKWBp-TIjShOVBO_NK-hIvc8uoeyHiPx2uplrvLO_t1TStdHi2g2NnpEYxLqm5qvbXiVBBD= 1m6QgzKnt84Ezw15T4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 31109505 31319444 31829345 32219267 32509184 32629119
32569087 32229066 31849079 31089155 30569254 30319345
30189415 30109457 30079491 30339507 31109505=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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