• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0220

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Mar 11 19:23:04 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 111923
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111922=20
    KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-112115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0220
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0222 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

    Areas affected...middle TN and far northern AL

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 46...

    Valid 111922Z - 112115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 46
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Mixed damaging wind/marginal severe hail threats should
    persist through late afternoon across mainly middle Tennessee into
    far northern Alabama.

    DISCUSSION...A couple of embedded supercells within a broken QLCS
    have yielded marginal severe hail and downed tree reports thus far.
    The boundary layer remains warm ahead of this activity, with surface
    temps mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. This will sustain a
    mixed damaging wind/severe hail threat over the next 2-3 hours. 18Z
    BNA sounding and recent VWP data confirm a nearly unidirectional
    southwesterly low-level wind profile with modest speed shear. This
    could support a brief tornado or two, but should largely remain a
    secondary hazard. Convection bubbling on the trailing portion of the
    outflow along the MS/AL border could yield an uptick in severe
    potential across far northern AL.

    ..Grams/Gleason.. 03/11/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ENVw94Xinf_QfuGPgNxLQW8132FlSCgfiTgx760F3SBJa7ELY093edEFiKKikKTwbOhfK8sM= EA23l-tyPdOdxfZmwc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

    LAT...LON 36518653 36748584 36778499 36698461 36348453 35708483
    34918612 34488696 34558812 34938801 35428761 35858737
    36138686 36518653=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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