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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0222

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Mar 11 20:45:27 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 112045
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112045=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-112215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0222
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0345 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

    Areas affected...parts of MS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 112045Z - 112215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated/marginal severe threat is anticipated over the
    next 2-3 hours across Mississippi, with greater severe potential
    expected later this evening over the southwest portion of the state.

    DISCUSSION...Abundant low-topped convection has struggled to deepen,
    well downstream of the QLCS over the Sabine Valley and attendant
    shortwave trough over east TX. Large-scale outflow continues to sag
    southeast from earlier convection that is now in Middle TN, recently
    reinforced by upstream convection over the Ark-La-Miss. Sporadic
    deepening has occurred with updrafts crossing the sagging outflow.
    Despite weak mid-level lapse rates sampled in the 18Z LCH sounding
    and 19Z ACARS near MSY, one cell has been able to produce lightning
    in the open warm sector northeast of Jackson. With a warm/well-mixed
    boundary layer, any sustained deep convection will have the
    potential to produce marginal severe wind/hail amid strong
    deep-layer shear. Low-level shear is weak per the JAN VWP and should
    remain so over the next few hours.=20

    Greater severe potential, mainly in the form of wind and brief
    tornado, will likely hold off until later in the evening as the
    upstream QLCS over the Sabine Valley approaches southwest MS.

    ..Grams/Gleason.. 03/11/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6KzCQOTI0pNlPVgYNuwhbWcVZjY0cSl0-SPziVCghv997ooWajpFseVY4QQmHrm84CpkLhSc9= Dd12Scx7SzSr4L4Mi4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 31729072 31959131 32529118 32869053 34098882 34278834
    34178786 33588800 32978839 32298925 31729072=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)