ACUS11 KWNS 112131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112131=20
TNZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-112330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0223
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...Southeastern Kentucky into Eastern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 112131Z - 112330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe thunderstorms will be possible
across portions of southeastern Kentucky into eastern Tennessee.
Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is possible downstream of WW 46.

DISCUSSION...Loosely organized clusters of thunderstorms across
portions of eastern Kentucky and Tennessee are expected to persist a
while longer into the evening, despite relatively meager MUCAPE
evident in current SPC mesoanalysis data. Well-mixed boundary layer
profiles and strong deep-layer vertical shear will support a threat
for damaging straight-line winds -- particularly with any bowing
segments or strong thunderstorm outflows. Given the decreasing
buoyancy with eastward extent, expectation is that convective
activity should begin to diminish later in the evening, but will
pose a severe threat for at least the next few hours.

..Halbert/Smith.. 03/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5MMSMwvenA0RqYwiMtScG229d9eLJ7FCeq7IzoIgC0OyP6CMcnpVvi2jg_I1XNv72jc8P4CwS= HqvweYOFjZ4SklUImk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...

LAT...LON 35328545 36608474 36968445 37098381 37008340 36678318
36078338 35618386 35188430 34988478 35038561 35168555
35328545=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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