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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0228

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Mar 12 04:58:25 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 120458
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120457=20
    GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-120700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0228
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1157 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

    Areas affected...parts of southwestern through east central Alabama
    and adjacent portions of Georgia...the western Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 48...49...

    Valid 120457Z - 120700Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 48, 49 continues.

    SUMMARY...An organized line of storms will overspread the region
    through 2-4 AM EDT, with some further increase in potential for
    tornadoes still possible.

    DISCUSSION...Although there has been a general warming of colder
    cloud tops associated with the convective system, a few embedded
    supercell structures persist, with occasional strengthening
    mesovortices along the eastward progressing convective outflow.=20 Boundary-layer cooling with the loss of daytime heating has slowed
    in advance of the line, and low-level moistening continues in a
    narrow corridor across southwestern into central Alabama, including
    surface dew points increasing through the upper 60s to near 70F
    across and northeast of Selma. Likely in association with a broader
    weak migrating surface wave, the latest Rapid Refresh forecasts
    further strengthening of flow around 850 mb in excess of 40 kt
    across southern/eastern Alabama through 06-08Z. Given continuing
    inflow of air characterized by at least weak CAPE, additional
    enlargement of clockwise curved low-level hodographs could still
    support increasing potential for tornadoes during the next few
    hours.

    ..Kerr.. 03/12/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6PKNJ8k8lj_A9F0dMrTlJtIUwUQaIpGeeEuFQNdM_7uj0_GvWgge3r12Gp_H_KoBrt4O9yUvw= J6p4IdjZtbOJnNeHoU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

    LAT...LON 32958486 32638465 31848557 30458697 30278781 30338876
    31698764 33128627 32958486=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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