ACUS11 KWNS 121633
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121632=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-121830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0233
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Areas affected...southern/eastern NC

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 51...

Valid 121632Z - 121830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 51
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for sporadic strong to locally severe gusts, with low-probability brief tornado potential, should persist into
mid-afternoon as lower-topped storms shift east-northeast across southern/eastern North Carolina.

DISCUSSION...Lower-topped convection is ongoing from far eastern SC
through the Raleigh metro area. Northern activity will continue to
be undercut by the surface cold front pushing southeast from the
Piedmont to Coastal Plain. More persistent strong to locally severe
gust potential should occur with the southern portion near the NC/SC
coastal border area. Favorably timed thinning of downstream cloud
coverage will aid in boosting boundary-layer instability/depth as
temperatures further warm from 75-80 F, outside of the immediate
coast. With veered and nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind
profiles curtailing hodograph curvature, damaging winds will likely
remain the primary hazard across southern NC through the Pamlico
Sound vicinity.

..Grams.. 03/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4OUIctfuKwbL4aUm0RVKzzLMzTL6B0uKnRFFcI5Tv0As9NX9ycOvETwzdU99obGgKw9wiGNOi= uRbQRW3ti_oz_dZYjk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 34177920 34737922 35077884 35657827 35907779 35917680
35677620 35187616 34947631 34787652 34417740 33797807
33597890 33607928 34177920=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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