ACUS11 KWNS 130706
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130706=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-131100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0236
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Areas affected...Parts of Upper MI...northern Lower MI...and far
northeastern WI

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 130706Z - 131100Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow with rates around 1 inch per hour (locally
higher) are expected through the early morning.

DISCUSSION...Within the base of a compact shortwave trough moving
eastward across MN, water-vapor imagery and VWP data indicate a
robust jet streak (around 100 kt at 6 km per VWP data) impinging on
WI. In response, a northwest/southeast-oriented frontogenetic zone
is evolving slowly northeastward across WI, Upper MI, and northern
Lower MI. Forcing for ascent is being maximized along/immediately
north of this zone, where cold/deeply saturated profiles and the
focused ascent are favoring a band of moderate to heavy snow. The strong/focused ascent within a deep/saturated DGZ will continue to
favor heavy snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour, though locally
higher rates to around 2 inches per hour are possible under the core
of the band translating northeastward across Upper MI into northern
Lower MI through the early morning hours.

..Weinman.. 03/13/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-jL3D3dkl4eB_Ba3rf0o-Il7MXf5BId5ylNVBGuvYQOi7LrzcYX7apID1S17Ydbh0xo6FOmF0= wilUPFXE3Is5VVqAcU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON 44318652 45258770 46658930 47168927 47518865 47538779
47038636 46598548 45838455 45048402 44518375 43928393
43598463 43778565 44318652=20


=3D =3D =3D
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