ACUS11 KWNS 291701
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291700=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-291900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0616
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Areas affected...northeast Louisiana...central and southern
Mississippi...and west-central and southwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 291700Z - 291900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms appear probable across the
discussion area this afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail are
the primary hazards. Convective trends are being monitored for a
possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar data as of 1700z indicate showers
gradually increasing in areal coverage from northeast LA into
west-central MS, along and ahead of a slow-moving cold front. Breaks
in the clouds have allowed for stronger daytime heating to occur
within the pre-frontal warm sector as of late morning. When coupled
with dewpoints in the low 70s, the air mass is already moderately
unstable with estimated MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg, per objective
analysis.

Current thinking is that the ongoing showers will deepen into
thunderstorms within the next hour as growing cold pools and frontal
lift allow parcels to fully realize the available instability. While
the low-level wind field is expected to remain relatively weak (ref.
current KDGX VWP), the presence of strong, westerly mid/upper-level
winds is yielding sufficient deep-layer shear for organized storm
modes. Modest mid-level lapse rates should temper overall hail
sizes; however, hail stones up to 1.00-1.75" in diameter will be
possible with any supercell structures. Damaging wind gusts will
also be a concern, driven largely by precipitation-loaded
downdrafts.

The main uncertainty at present is areal coverage of the
severe-weather threat. Convective trends are being monitored for a
possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

..Mead.. 04/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4poKBzqjxPB6rXRk-HrBU7vlB6YJ7Prx_ssqrYEd1ffu_k-ZMHKGNvfPZaOSsJh_QXyXGhzsa= k9c-1p3NHRxPuOJRPE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 32049181 32359177 32939025 33088884 32548795 31408750
31088792 30958913 31039031 31439157 32049181=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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