ACUS11 KWNS 291749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291748=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-291945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0617
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Upper Ohio River Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 291748Z - 291945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected over the
next couple of hours across the Upper Ohio River Valley, with
stronger thunderstorms posing an isolated risk for strong wind gusts
and a brief tornado or two.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a weak surface low
along the Pennsylvania/Ohio border, with a trailing cold front
extending southwestward into the mid-Ohio Valley. In the wake of
morning precipitation, filtered diurnal heating ahead of this front
coupled with dewpoints in the upper-50s F to near 60 are supporting
weak buoyancy (around 500 J/kg MLCAPE per latest mesoanalysis).
While the magnitude of additional destabilization remains uncertain, upper-level ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough coupled
with favorable jet streak dynamics are expected to promote an
increase in thunderstorm coverage along/ahead of the approaching
cold front this afternoon. Effective bulk shear of 35-40 kts (per
latest mesoanalysis) will be sufficient to support more organized
convection, with potential for the development of a linear segment
and/or low-topped supercells. Low-level hodograph curvature evident
in the PBZ/RLX/CCX VAD profiles and 17z special sounding will likely
support the potential for isolated strong wind gusts and a brief
tornado or two with any stronger convection that can develop. Trends
will continue to be monitored, and a small convective watch may be
issued for a portion of the area.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 04/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9GFvHB-IYSQjQxQrUBRz-suPTIhiNcpx6KlnAvWI3wdpGJH1Z_nrykAf6ffMGqafmPB3VOULe= loadm1ukvqa5woVygI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 39397888 38967935 38798004 38918077 39218125 39738127
40008109 40838048 41347986 41537948 41487876 41287842
40787832 40187846 39397888=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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