ACUS11 KWNS 291755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291754=20
TXZ000-292000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0618
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Areas affected...Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country of Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 291754Z - 292000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms capable of large to very
large hail and severe wind gusts is expected to increase across the
discussion area this afternoon. Convective trends are being
monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorms have recently intensified
over Kimble and Edwards Counties, along and in the immediate wake of
a cold front moving south through the area. A small pocket of
clearing has developed to the immediate east of that convection,
which should allow for locally strong diabatic heating to occur. The
12z DRT sounding sampled a formidable cap at the base of EML;
however, latest objective analysis suggests that cap is eroding in
the vicinity of the ongoing storms.=20

If the current activity can become rooted in the boundary layer, the
colocation of a moderate to strongly unstable air mass (MLCAPE of
2500-3000 J/kg) with effective bulk shear magnitudes of 50-55 knots
would support evolution into longer-lived supercell structures. The
predominant hazard would be large to very large hail (2.5-3.5" in
diameter), with more sporadic occurrences of severe wind gusts.
While a tornado or two is possible, the overall potential will be
limited by relatively weak low-level shear and undercutting nature
of the cold front.

Convective trends are being monitored for a possible Severe
Thunderstorm Watch.

..Mead/Smith.. 04/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7lws9HW4WqL9ErZ73oEdoosYDpMFBy3acA4LUGjIVRBRMh_-OyNFZJ81hkko0kcAs0_-aOTQP= 3GB84dpmeaYjl_DG68$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30470138 29700116 29219941 29419764 30039735 30369759
30659826 30699968 30620079 30470138=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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