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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0619

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 29 18:38:14 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 291838
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291837=20
    LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-292030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0619
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0137 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

    Areas affected...north Texas into the ArkLaTex

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180...

    Valid 291837Z - 292030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Large hail remains the predominant severe-weather threat
    in the near term. The hail threat is developing to the west of the
    current watch across portions of north Texas, and a local extension
    in area may be need.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1925z, mosaic radar data showed a broad zone of
    elevated thunderstorms extending from the Brownwood, TX vicinity
    into the ArkLaTex region. The most intense storms were located over
    Cass and Marion Counties in northeast TX, and Claiborne Parish in
    northwest LA with recent reports of 1.0-1.5" diameter hail with
    those storms. Modest low-level warm advection atop a stable,
    near-surface layer (per KFWD VWP) will continue to sustain the
    ongoing storms within a moderately unstable and strongly sheared
    environment. As such, the setup will remain favorable for embedded
    supercell structures capable of large hail up to 2.5" in diameter.
    The large-hail threat may materialize to the west of the current
    watch area, and a local extension may be required.

    Given the relatively closer proximity of the northwest LA storms to
    the surface front, the threat for severe wind gusts may increase as
    that activity continues southeast toward the boundary.

    ..Mead.. 04/29/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-0MCCOUL2BCoyAdyx4HfkRLafoICmwAdopPFQfc9F3qJQNeBV7jHnHZojV6kf69a4Kz6ijJ_h= Elp69fxvdTXzA-iTMU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

    LAT...LON 31999864 32819794 33529518 33329299 33139229 32489216
    31679217 31429321 31369388 31669530 31509825 31999864=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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