ACUS11 KWNS 291846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291845=20
WVZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-292045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0620
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Areas affected...portions of the central/southern Appalachians into
the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 291845Z - 292045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is
expected this afternoon along/ahead of an approach cold front. A
couple of stronger storms may pose an isolated risk for marginally
severe hail, strong wind gusts, and a brief tornado. Watch issuance
is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery has shown transient
strengthening of ongoing convective cores in the vicinity of
Charleston, West Virginia, over the past 30-60 minutes. Latest
high-res guidance continues to suggest additional development is
likely across the northern Cumberland and central/southern Blue
Ridge Mountains through the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold
front. Continued diurnal heating amid scattered cloud cover and
dewpoints in the upper-50s to lower-60s F are expected to promote
marginally greater buoyancy compared to areas farther north, with
latest forecast soundings indicating the presence of 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE by later this afternoon. Elongated hodographs and 35-45+ kts
of effective bulk shear amid strong flow aloft will support the
potential for marginally severe hail with any stronger convective
cores. Isolated strong wind gusts will also be possible given the
presence of drier mid-level air, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled
out given modest low-level hodograph curvature evident in regional
VWPs. Watch issuance is not anticipated at this time given the
overall expectation for limited threat coverage and magnitude.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 04/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9yEL7ASIxn5hYxnAtKuJNQzdxJn-ZTAs30CfLckbEB8l9h85_E28TBwc9MLDfA5CzBrLIJAu0= q6syE5z500ZgZk9hLk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON 36358060 35818114 35378183 35238239 35178321 35348363
35698381 36658340 37128310 38498226 38858179 39048070
38787968 38417948 37777965 37118005 36358060=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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