ACUS11 KWNS 292221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292220=20
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-300015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0622
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Areas affected...central Louisiana and far eastern Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180...

Valid 292220Z - 300015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180
continues.

SUMMARY...Some risk of severe hail, and perhaps damaging winds,
persists across portions of WW 180 in central Louisiana.
Additionally, conditions are being monitored along and south of an
outflow boundary for additional development within a buoyant air
mass.

DISCUSSION...Organized convection with a history of producing severe
hail continues to traverse far eastern TX and western LA. Although
this activity will likely remain elevated behind a surface
front/outflow boundary, the downstream environment continues to
feature sufficient MUCAPE (around 1500 J/kg) and deep-layer wind
shear for organized convection, including the potential for elevated supercells. Consequently, the primary hazard will most likely be
large hail (most likely in the 1 to 1.75 inch range, though hail
stones up to 2 inches appear possible given favorably weak low-level
shear and strong flow aloft). Sporadic damaging winds also appear
possible given the relatively warm (albeit still stable) surface
conditions.

Further south, trends are being monitored as new convection attempts
to develop along and ahead of the front/outflow boundary. Convection
developing towards the south will mature in a similarly favorable
environment and will pose a severe hail threat. New convection may
develop to the south of the current bounds of WW 180 depending on
the southward propagation of the outflow. If this occurs, downstream
watch issuance may be needed.

..Moore.. 04/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5oeRf7mJNvXdnx0ZidfVyylhj8N-_Iz98ZqTxD4cEqIM4wOIcM_Yj4mSb1GC6VscTv3CK7NSh= NGEvVw_mYTFXwQ34R4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 32289383 32339351 32189216 32109188 31949158 31679149
31099161 30969173 30719200 30649259 30659302 30739343
30819386 30979419 31279438 31619443 31819442 31999436
32209414 32289383=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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