ACUS11 KWNS 292243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292243=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-300045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0623
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0543 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...southern Mississippi and
Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181...

Valid 292243Z - 300045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging winds remain possible as an MCS slowly pushes
south across far southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi and
Alabama. Trends are being monitored for the need for a downstream
watch issuance across parts of the Florida Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...A squall line continues to push south/southeast with a
few wind damage reports noted over the past 1-2 hours. More
recently, observed winds have largely been near 35-40 mph and MRMS
echo tops shows a slight weakening trend over the past half hour.
Additionally, anvil shading downstream of the MCS is cooling surface temperatures, resulting in a gradual decrease in surface-based and
mixed-layer CAPE in recent mesoanalyses.=20

Despite this weakening trend, a narrow plume of 1000-1500 J/kg
remains in place immediately downstream of the MCS, so some
re-intensification appears plausible over the next hour or so before
the MCS reaches the coast. Consequently, the potential for damaging
winds (most likely between 40-60 mph) will likely persist for the short-term.=20

Further east, the primary bowing segment of the MCS is beginning to
approach the Mobile, AL area. Based on recent storm tracks, is
appears possible that this section of the line moves into the far
western FL Panhandle within the next 1-2 hours. This may require a
watch extension or targeted watch issuance if re-intensification of
the MCS occurs.

..Moore.. 04/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-W6P_rz-zuAKfoRHINjltN7HNY5NCMLrN9wptAoxgrl3Ub_jtcViQKXv56hxAjJMFEGNlOkma= 67_k6wY3_fIECaEap8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30199030 30329071 30509098 30709122 30949130 31179131
31369115 31249041 31219004 31198971 31218912 31298868
31478835 31628806 31588720 31468649 31348619 31218601
31148592 30918597 30588626 30408657 30258714 30078795
30038905 30048945 30078987 30199030=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)