ACUS11 KWNS 292250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292250=20
TXZ000-300015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0624
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Areas affected...portions of western and central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182...

Valid 292250Z - 300015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk (primarily for large hail) continues
across WW182 this evening.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms remains ongoing along the modified outflow/cold front in northern portions of WW182. So far, these
storms have remained on the cool side of the slowly sagging boundary
with little intensification noted. Still, some storm-scale rotation
and presence of large MUCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg) amid favorable
deep-layer shear for supercells will support severe potential,
mainly in the form of large to very large hail. An uptick in severe
potential could occur if these storms are able to move onto the warm
side of the boundary. This would also support some risk for an
isolated tornado and damaging gusts, but this remains uncertain.

Additional development has been noted farther northwest along the
boundary into Terrell and Crockett Counties. CAM guidance and
observational trends suggest a similar severe risk is possible with
these storms as they mature this evening. Given the extremely
unstable and strongly sheared environment, the severe risk continues
across WW182.

..Lyons.. 04/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9BuK7yNB7BPtmTgZwwjr4IEaJR40SH5c3BUtmLzcO1S2e3oQo2A90g8fwJpkgmP0rSo7ZkdHm= _BBFFqgu_wWq7J6kHg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 30720120 30700036 30239915 29759872 29199853 28749867
28519899 28229954 28180025 28830060 29230087 29630144
29660166 29930172 30470182 30720120=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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