ACUS11 KWNS 300140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300139=20
TXZ000-300315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0626
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0839 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Areas affected...southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182...

Valid 300139Z - 300315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolate to widely scattered elevated supercells will
continue to pose a risk for severe hail this evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 0135 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several
new storms had developed across WW182 in the last two hours.
Organization has been noted with several of these storms displaying
fairly strong mid-level rotation. These storms are likely elevated,
north of the sagging front/outflow.

Still, a broad reservoir of elevated buoyancy remains in place
across southwest TX with 3000-5000 J/kg of MUCAPE and steep
mid-level lapse rates (DRT/MAF RAOBs). Effective shear is also
robust with 50-60 kt of deep-layer zonal flow overspreading the
region. This should continue to support supercells with significant
hail potential (2-3") along the Rio Grande Valley and Southwest TX
this evening.

..Lyons.. 04/30/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7PlT4jM0QuzZE-QkZQ4BJ5bcK7P6BITrfAB5dnZZV4qHtDUb-oc7XsYFp7SqjYS0UFWLpa8aH= ZkW55FXi2bQ31JPIYQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 30370175 30490060 30299982 29849924 29399871 28679852
28299869 28179903 28129929 28119988 28180006 28300040
28490059 28920088 29470135 29600153 29670158 30370175=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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